In May 2026, the global steel billet market is undergoing a profound supply‑demand reshaping. Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, production disruptions in overseas steel capacity, and intense global trade policy maneuvering, the supply pattern for steel billet — the core semi‑finished raw material in the steel industry chain — is undergoing historic change. As the world’s largest producer and exporter of steel billet, China’s billet products, leveraging their production scale, cost advantages, and rapid response capabilities, are firmly taking center stage on the global market.

Dramatic international changes: the billet market hit by a “supply shock wave”

In May 2026, the global steel billet market encountered two major supply “black swan” events. First, Iran, the world’s tenth largest steel producer, saw about 10 million tonnes of annual production capacity suspended due to military conflict. On April 27, it announced a halt to exports of 66 types of steel products, including slabs and hot‑rolled coils, until May 30. Iran produced 31.8 million tonnes of crude steel in 2025, with annual exports of approximately 10 million tonnes. This disruption has created a phased impact on the Asian slab market, where local prices have accumulated increases of about USD 100/tonne since the end of last year. Second, in early May, Ukraine’s ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih steel plant was forced to halt production due to damage to railway infrastructure, further exacerbating the tight supply of long products in the European and North African markets. Additionally, the United States announced an increase in Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%; major EU economies rejected the US proposal and are considering countermeasures, and the EU plans to cut steel import quotas and raise tariffs. The escalation of global trade barriers is further reshaping the flow of billet trade.

Price differences and cost advantages: the global competitiveness of Chinese billet

Rising global billet prices have opened a larger export window for Chinese billet. From April to early May 2026, global steel prices strengthened broadly. Brazilian hot‑rolled coil prices rose 21% from the beginning of the year, and US prices rose 15%. Meanwhile, Chinese billet, with its significant cost advantage and price competitiveness, has become the first choice for many overseas buyers. In the first two weeks of May, Chinese steel output fell 3.2% year‑on‑year; the marginal contraction in domestic supply has supported billet prices to some extent, yet Chinese export quotes remain highly competitive. With its comprehensive advantages — stable pricing, timely delivery, and reliable quality — Chinese billet has won the favor of major buyers worldwide.

Outlook: the strategic role of Chinese billet in the global steel landscape

As the global manufacturing sector gradually recovers and infrastructure investment continues to grow, global demand for steel billet — a fundamental link in steel smelting — remains at a high level. The World Steel Association projects global steel demand to grow 0.3% to 1.724 billion tonnes in 2026 and further accelerate to 2.2% in 2027. Against this backdrop, Chinese billet will play an increasingly strategic role in the global steel industry chain. Looking ahead, China’s billet sector will, building on its three core strengths — production scale, cost competitiveness, and product mix — continue to deepen technological upgrades and product structure optimization, contributing a Chinese solution to the high‑quality development of the global steel industry.

> Data sources: Mysteel, General Administration of Customs, World Steel Association, Goldman Sachs reports and other public materials.