Amid ongoing international geopolitical conflicts and a gradual bottoming out of the global manufacturing sector, steel — the "industrial backbone" of national economies — has seen its strategic value increasingly highlighted. The World Steel Association’s short‑range demand forecast released in April 2026 indicates that global steel demand will edge up 0.3% to 1.724 billion tonnes in 2026, and accelerate further to 2.2% in 2027, reaching 1.762 billion tonnes. After a continuous adjustment period that saw declines of 1.6% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, global steel demand is now at a key turning point toward recovery.

Production capacity leads the world, export share firmly ranks first

Leveraging its comprehensive industrial system and economies of scale, China's steel industry holds an unshakable position in the global market. In 2025, despite industry self‑regulation efforts to control production, China’s crude steel output reached 960.8 million tonnes, while steel exports surged 19% year‑on‑year to a historical high of 92 million tonnes. China’s share of global seaborne steel exports rose from 35% in 2024 to nearly 40% in 2025, contributing the entire increment in global steel export volumes. In the first quarter of 2026, although exports declined due to overseas anti‑dumping measures, the overall export scale remained considerable, with flat products such as hot‑rolled, cold‑rolled, and coated steel remaining the main export categories. Leading steel enterprises such as Angang, Benxi Steel, and Lingyuan Steel announced in May 2026 a RMB 100/tonne price increase for June deliveries of hot‑rolled, pickled, cold‑rolled, and non‑oriented electrical steel products, further boosting market confidence.

Market resilience stands out; multiple advantages form core competitiveness

Facing a complex international trade environment, China’s steel industry has demonstrated strong resilience and adaptability. After the Labor Day holiday in 2026, driven by concentrated end‑user restocking demand and high raw material costs, rebar futures prices broke through the RMB 3,200/tonne level, hitting their highest point since August last year. Steel inventory falling for seven consecutive weeks further boosted market sentiment, indicating tightening short‑term spot supply. On the demand side, steel consumption in the manufacturing sector maintained moderate growth, while infrastructure steel demand provided solid support, with central budget investment allocated at RMB 755 billion and ultra‑long special treasury bonds of RMB 800 billion directed toward major projects under the "Two Major Constructions". Steel varieties such as automotive sheets, cold‑rolled coils, and wire rods maintained good momentum supported by resilient consumption. Meanwhile, emerging markets such as India continued to show strong demand for steel billets and finished products, with India’s steel demand growth projected at 7.4% in 2026, offering new growth opportunities for Chinese steel exports.

Confronting challenges head‑on, moving toward high‑quality development

At the same time, China’s steel industry faces challenges that cannot be overlooked. Global trade protectionism is intensifying: the EU will implement new rules on July 1, raising the tariff on excess quota from 25% to 50%; South Korea has proposed imposing anti‑dumping duties of 22.34% to 33.67% on certain Chinese coated steel plates. In addition, high prices of raw materials such as iron ore, combined with low and stable steel prices, have created a “price scissors” effect that has cut the steelmaking profits of key surveyed steel enterprises by as much as 85.6%. Guided by the “dual carbon” goals and the 15th Five‑Year Plan, China’s steel industry is accelerating its transition from scale‑driven expansion to quality‑ and efficiency‑driven growth. Through green and intelligent upgrades and the development of high‑end products, it continues to strengthen its global competitiveness. Looking ahead, China’s steel industry will continue to leverage its three core advantages — production scale, cost competitiveness, and a complete industrial chain — to contribute Chinese strength to the stable supply and high‑quality development of the global steel market.

> Data sources: World Steel Association, Mysteel, General Administration of Customs, and other public sources.